Impact Insights #13

Welcome back to the ESGI Horizon Newsletter! Today, we’re excited to dissect the insights of the paper on the scientific case for climate liability. Then we’ll look at some News & Trends, among others, complaints against the Superfund laws, the end of NOAA’s climate disaster database, and a report on CO2 emissions of fossil fuel companies. Lastly, we’ll finish with the latest exciting impact deals.

Focus Article: Carbon majors and the scientific case for climate liability

Will it ever be possible to sue anyone for damaging the climate? Callahan and Mankin (2025) argue that the scientific case for climate liability is closed. They developed a rigorous, flexible, transparent, and widely applicable end-to-end attribution framework. Using scope 1 and 3 emissions data from major fossil fuel companies, the framework connects company-level emissions to extreme heat and economic losses. By providing scientific evidence to establish 𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺, scientists can confidently support the argument that companies have directly caused climate-related damages. This scientific evidence could pave the way for lawsuits that make these companies responsible for their contribution to climate change.  

Here are the key findings:

• Massive Economic Losses: The heatwaves and general increase in temperatures caused by the emissions from 111 of the biggest carbon-producing companies are found to have resulted in $28 trillion in global economic losses over 1991–2020.

  

  Estimated cumulative economic losses from extreme heat by carbon majors

• Individual Company Contribution: The researchers were able to pinpoint how much specific companies contributed to these losses. The five that contributed the most were Aramco, Gazprom, Chevron, ExxonMobil and BP. Emissions from Chevron, for example, led to economic losses between $791 billion and $3.6 trillion from 1991 to 2020. This shows that the financial impact of each major company's emissions can be quantified.  

• Direct Link Between Emissions and Damage: Each extra percentage point contribution to total 1850–2020 CO2 and CH4 emissions generates a further $834 billion in global economic losses from extreme heat in 1991–2020. This establishes a direct relationship between the amount of pollution companies produce and the resulting economic harm.

  

  Estimated change in global mean temperature and local extreme heat by carbon majors. Tx5d(temperature of the five hottest days in each year)

• Unequal Regional Impact: The economic damage is not evenly distributed across the globe. The study revealed that regions closer to the equator, like South America, Africa, and Southeast Asia, have suffered more, with losses reducing their economic growth by more than 1% per year.

Previously, climate change lawsuits were often unsuccessful because it was hard to prove a direct link between an individual company's emissions and specific damages. For the first time, there's a clear, quantifiable connection between fossil fuel companies and the climate-related costs imposed on society. This paper calls for formalised communication and education between the scientific and judicial communities. Its ability to establish causality on caused harm is crucial for climate liability cases, meeting the same legal standard of “but for” causation that was essential in holding tobacco and asbestos companies liable in past cases.

News & Trends

• 🛢️ Carbon Majors reports that 36 fossil fuel companies are responsible for over half of global CO2 emissions. The list is dominated by state-owned energy entities like Saudi Aramco (4.5% of global CO2 emissions), Coal India (3.7%) and CHN Energy (3.6%). BP, TotalEnergies, Equinor, Shell, ExxonMobil, and Chevron accounted for 5.8% of global fossil CO2 emissions. Meanwhile, these investor-owned companies are all scaling back their renewable energy investments while committing to increasing oil and gas production in the name of short-term profits.

  

  Global CO2 Emissions (1854–2023)

• 🛑 The U.S. Justice Department and 24 U.S. State Attorneys General have filed complaints against the states of New York and Vermont over their respective climate change “Superfund” laws. These laws are intended to shift some of the recovery and adaptation costs of climate change from individual taxpayers to oil, gas, and coal companies for their contributions to climate change. The New York law was anticipated to require fossil fuel companies to pay approximately $75 billion through 2050, or about $3 billion per year. The Justice Department’s action follows the Executive Order “Protecting American Energy from State Overreach”, signed by President Trump in April, directing the U.S. Attorney General to:

  identify and take action to stop the enforcement of laws and regulations “burdening the identification, development, siting, production, or use of domestic energy resources that are or may be unconstitutional,” with priority given to laws “purporting to address “climate change” or involving “environmental, social, and governance” initiatives, “environmental justice,” carbon or “greenhouse gas” emissions”.

  

• ⚖️ Deutsche Bank’s asset management arm, DWS Group, was charged €25 million for greenwashing and “negligent infringement” for its ESG-marketing statements, documentation and control processes. Statements made by DWS about being an “ESG leader” or ESG being an integral part of its “DNA” was not fulfilled by the business organization itself. The fine comes two years after DWS was charged $19 million by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

  

• 🚫 The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) will cease tracking the costs of climate crisis-fueled weather disasters in the U.S.. This database is crucial for assessing and responding to the growing financial impact of climate-driven events, especially as insurance premiums rise. This decision is linked to the Trump administration's limitations on federal climate change resources and efforts to remove climate crisis references.

  

Latest Impact Deals

• Aligned Climate Capital Raises $200 Million for Distributed Solar Fund. The fund acquires construction-ready distributed solar projects from development partners across the U.S., finances their build-out, and delivers returns through tax credit monetization, operating income distributions, and portfolio sales to institutional infrastructure investors.

• A $40 billion Africa Energy Fund to Boost Clean Cooking Access and Energy Transition was launched at the Mission 300 Africa Energy Summit. The initiative aims to provide cleaner and more reliable energy to 300 million people by 2030. The World Bank has pledged $22 billion to support the initiative, while the African Development Bank has committed $18.2 billion. Additional contributions include $2.65 billion from the Islamic Development Bank and $1 billion from the OPEC Fund

• Aruwa Capital Management, a Lagos-based female-founded and led early-stage growth equity and gender lens fund manager, has raised 90% towards its $40m target for its second fund, Aruwa Capital Fund II. The fund backs high-growth, impact-driven businesses that are transforming key industries in Nigeria and Ghana.